The Graveyard of Empires Pt2

The effects of the withdraw of the US from Afghanistan still are rippling and reverberating in the world. Domestically in the US this has lead to a rise of anger towards the Presidency and the Military leadership.

Since the first part a lot has happened, ironically my outline for this blog entry when I started focused more on the geopolitics of the withdraw. However now this seems a bit strange to talk about, much of the change has occurred recently due to a release of a book in which General Millie promised to notify the Chinese if an attack would happen.

Are we witnessing the beginning of the end? Has the US crossed the Rubicon? Would this lead to a new Chinese century?

The Phone call

With the narrative pushed by the administration that the collapse of the Afghan army was unexpected, Reuters leaked a phone call between Ashraf Ghani (the then president of Afghanistan) and Joe Biden.

The phone call not only undermine the administrations claims of now knowing about the collapse, but also insinuates that negotiations with the Taliban had already taken place.

Biden certainly knew for example that the situation was different and insisted that Ghani needed to project a different picture

I need not tell you the perception around the world and in parts of Afghanistan, I believe, is that things aren’t going well in terms of the fight against the Taliban. And there’s a need, whether it is true or not, there is a need to project a different picture.

Biden also lied to Ghani, in promising that air support would continue as the excerpts show.

We are also going to continue to make sure your air force is capable of continuing to fly and provide air support. In addition to that we are going to continue to fight hard, diplomatically, politically, economically, to make sure your government not only survives, but is sustained and grows because it is clearly in the interest of the people of Afghanistan, that you succeed and you lead

We know now that this is a lie, as the logistical support that the armed forces of the Afghan government heavily depended on where withdrawn.

When Ghani speaks he makes two interesting points

That the invasion by the Taliban is backed by Packistan: Mr. President, we are facing a full-scale invasion, composed of Taliban, full Pakistani planning and logistical support, and at least 10-15,000 international terrorists, predominantly Pakistanis thrown into this, so that dimension needs to be taken account of.
The Afghan government was suspicious that there was a back door deal done: There are agreements with the Taliban that we are not previously aware of
That the US projection of power was cautious around the Taliban: and because of your air force was extremely cautious in attacking them

This already places Biden’s public claims to the US citizens as outright lies. Matt Zeller was right, the administration was only focused on the optics of the situation. This places the US leadership at a very weak position globally and with little to no credibility on the diplomatic front.

The phone call is damming and would of been fatal to any administration, however this was not the end of it.

Bureaucracy Gone Wild

The leaked phone call between the two Presidents is of interest by it self. It indicates a certain degree of will by departments of the government to act unilaterally. This was most pervasive in the Trump presidency where government officials were constantly leaking information that would publicly damage the president. This showed a remarkable degree of politicisation in the halls of the bureaucracy, and that departments have their own specific goals and agendas.

Not to say this is new, one only needs to see Yes My Minister to get a feel on how this happened. However what is remarkable is the degree to which these organisations now assert themselves. Oddly enough what has happened is something not entirely expected, the idea that government departments be independent was to avoid the politicisation by the government of the day. To provide a firebreak between the political party system and the functioning organelles of the government.

An oddly specific example here in Australia is Treasury, this is institution is very powerful in effect it has its own ideas on how Australia should be managed and structured. Both parties submit or get modelling on how their budget from Treasury (or they used to at least). So while both parties might espouse different economic ideologies, the vision of Australia’s economy is essentially that of Treasury, with some facade on what the Party in power wanted to achieve.

To say that organelles of the government should have no autonomy is not the argument, but rather the brazen break of of the relationship within government. To flip back to the US, in the Trump years this was really on display, constant leaks by officials (true or not) was done to damage the political institution. It almost took a coup like form, by having sections act in any way or shape to damage the President. The worst part of all of this it was rewarded by factions within the political class, again because it benefited them, however this does structural damage to the foundations of government as the populace see the spectacle.

The Pivot

In effect Biden’s leaked phone call, unhappy with what had happened (by either the withdraw itself or ending the war) represents a turning point. Where empowered actors can violate diplomatic privileges on a multinational level between two head of states. That could of only happened in a period where the collaboration between the different parts of government have broken down.

While I appreciate the transparency and openness this has brought, since we no longer have to wait 30 years to know what happened. I do wonder about the underlying damage that has been done.

The Domestic Front

How did the US withdraw from Afghanistan do domestically? Well so far not well at all, from the execution of the botched withdrawal, following revelations on the administration’s role in making sure that this botched withdrawal had occurred, leading to a sinking of the polls for the administration.

Leaving Citizens behind

With the withdrawal the administration had to make an odd alliance, although it didn’t need to. With the Taliban, this alliance was to allow access to US persons of interest to get to the besieged Kabul airport. Although by the administration’s own account it didn’t need to do this, as the Taliban offered the US to have control of Kabul while they withdrew their troops.

This moment of unbelievable naivety happened when the US officials were handing to the Taliban lists of US citizens and Afghanis who had helped the US. However it didn’t end there, it also included other intelligence as well. In essence handing the Taliban a kill list, so far no US citizen has died yet, however as reports later came in the Afghanis have not had the same treatment. During this time period, a comedian had been beheaded by the Taliban for doing his job, making jokes.

Predators showing their stripes

On other fronts a TikTok video was floating around the internet of a US soldier promising to shoot US citizens should an internal conflict arise. Now this is not much of a surprise to people who have lived in Military Dictatorships. Never count on hoping that the military will side with the populace. There is a belief in western nations that the military would never shoot it’s own citizens, however this is almost never the case. Many have forgotten that for many years governments in western nations have used the military on its own citizenry. A perfect example of this was mock invasion from Cuba that JFK refused to even consider, under the name of Operation Bingo. Just ask your self a question how many times have the military being deployed to “enforce the law”? You can start there.

Asking for Accountability

Then came Stuart Scheller much like Matt Zeller previously, released a video where he laid his opinion on accountability for the Afghan withdraw. He said the the leaders of the military should be held accountable, and for that he was relieved of his command.

When he received his disciplinary letter, he decided to resign. Now this is an indicator as recently with the vaccine mandates Navy Seals are deciding to resign, the military is having a crisis of confidence. The Marine core not content with his very public resignation has placed him in the brig aka jail. Intentional messaging or not, this will have repercussions, on the surface it is telling the current serving members to not step out of line. The other message is more insidious, and will cause a lot of morale damage.

Scheller’s video and subsequent resignation has made a lot veterans and existing members of the armed forces anxious about the future of the country. However what Biden did next, did not abate their concerns.

The Kabul Bombing

For the US the withdraw was just the start of its major problems. The checkpoint bombing was another disaster on it’s hands. With 13 service members dead, and raising all sorts of questions.

Did the Taliban let the attack happen?
Did the administration know ahead of time?
Revelations on the Taliban offering the US control of the city, and why did the Administration decide to reject that offer?

Come on man!: Missing Context

Things were not going to get any better for the administration, as the president seemed more intent on offering another self-defeating blow. This time by checking his watch on the “dignified transfer” of the fallen service members to their grieving families.

Not only did he do this once, but several families have said that he did this multiple times during the ceremony. The media via USAToday, had decided that the story was false and proceeded to “fact check” the witness claims, to ”false”. This was literally attacked on Twitter by people, as well other media, seeing the plainly obvious that was on the video of Biden checking his watch. Later on the journalist offered a non-apology and changed the fact check to ”missing context”. Which is nice but it’s still not right, as some witnesses account he did that for almost all the passing soldiers. As if Biden was bothered by this ceremony.

The view that Biden did this, either shows an utter disrespect for service members, or he is loosing his self-control. Both of these options are terrifying, but given earlier accounts of the leaked phone calls a third option exists, and that is both.

Hunter - The grift that keeps on grifting - aka How many laptops?

During the whole withdraw, a video leaked showing the President’s son speaking to a prostitute which had been taken from a stolen laptop (potentially another one?). The New York Times did run a campaign saying that the story was unsubstantiated, however the video clearly showed Hunter speaking, however at this point evidence is pointing to the President’s son as being a huge liability.

The Biden’s dealings with Barisma, and other negotiations which where labelled as misinformation, where recently also confirmed by Politico as being true, although they do add the following ironic caveat

While the leak contains genuine files, it remains possible that fake material has been slipped in

This is simply asserted with out evidence, the Daily Mail shows that this is unlikely to be true.

Glenn Greenwald has an excellent monologue regarding the history and suppression of this story. To summarise the allegations are true, and they were actively covered up by a media establishment that was willing to do the job of political operatives. The scary point that Glenn brings out is that the infrastructure for this was setup, and then used to great success in suppressing the story.

Hunter’s constant embarrassment and huge liability’s ties to China with business dealings, means that the Biden administration is in a weak position. My only guess as to the pivot from Russia to China (apparently against Milley’s advice) is to throw off the scent of weakness. However domestically this does nothing but show to the populace that the Media are certainly not helping the populace, and the president is potentially a national risk.

The Taliban Strikes Back

When the Taliban finally took Afghanistan the US left it behind a gift ranging from $20 billion to $40 billion dollars of equipment. This was enough to kit out their forces with the latest tac gear, with night vision systems. Helicopters including black hawks which they quickly worked out how to fly. Drones, airplanes, missiles, tanks, ground material and equipment to kit out a modern army. There is no doubt that given the amount of booty the Taliban found it self with, some of this equipment was probably bought by China. In essence this transfer of equipment not only did it give the Taliban a huge edge in the region but was also a gift to China, who now has a chance to reverse engineer the US technologies.

The new Taliban

When Kabul fell, the Biden administration went to praise the Taliban’s new stripes as less extreme version of it former self. This was quickly becoming apparent that this was not the case, as videos of women getting beaten up where being shown on the internet. Not to mention those who opposed the regime where quickly attacked. The execution of a comedian for “making jokes”, which enraged some of the neo-liberals of the US.

This new “Taliban” myth crumbled as the old heads appeared, and the Taliban also took great pleasure of poking at the US administration. This however locally exposed the administration to be shown to be weak, with many in government no longer believing what is said and reported. This can be argued is just partisanship of part of the parties, however this sentiment is shared more broadly across the populace.

Troll Level: Taliban

The Taliban also began taking to the art of trolling the west. The first of such acts was accusing the west on free speech. How FaceBook was actively censoring them, the Taliban spoke on how all Afghans should be free to speak on all public platforms. However while FaceBook was happy to ban the Taliban for being a terrorist organisation, Twitter has not.

The Taliban took to twitter to mock the president, the fighters decked in full US combat gear placing the Taliban flag in the style of the WW2 marines, eating ice-cream like joe Biden. When the issues of vaccine mandates started to become a hot topic, the Taliban suggested to ignore Joe Biden as that what they did.

Today Twitter still holds a ban on Trump, where as the Taliban is free to post there, something that has not been unnoticed by the populace.

Was there a plan?

A rather interesting question given what has come to light, Matt Zeller offered plans, however they were not what the Administration wanted. If there was a plan it certainly was not what unrolled during the withdrawal.

The management and lack of foresight by the leadership highlights are very dangerous situation both abroad and locally. My only guess that this plan would of been hastily put together, they would of hoped to withdraw and negotiate a new transition power to the Taliban.

Optics of the situation

However all it showed was, that the US was willing to betray allies and its own commitments. This would later play out with the new Asia focus alliance AUKUS which in the process angered France.

I think that the administration also hoped that they could have maintained the illusion of power in the region through ”over the horizon” projection. This I guess was the administrations answer to how they would control the Taliban. However all it did was lead to more deaths and more anger in the domestic front.

Double Explosions

The US wanting to project competence decided to demonstrate its ”over the horizon” capabilities. They used drones to strike what seemed to be an ISIS-K target. Some within the military were claiming that it caused double explosions, due to the initial drone strike and the secondary blasts from all the explosive material.

This ”double explosion” was aptly named as it was the remaining credibility of the US Pentagon the Administration.

As investigations later revealed the people killed were children, carrying water. The Taliban of course was happy to demonstrate to the world the incompetence of the US Pentagon. Also there were never any ”double explosions”, as suggested by earlier reports, making the Military seem more incompetent than before not only targeting innocent civilians but by boasting and lying about the efficacy of their strike.

This has angered many in the US, is not that drone strikes haven’t caused casualties before but rather the bold face lying especially after the suicide bombing and subsequent display by the President by checking his watch.

Realpolitik

One could argue that the pivot to the Taliban from the Afghan government was realpolitik. It might seem like that on the surface however this type of politics as practiced by Kissinger seems very distant from what has actually happened so far.

For one, realpolitik is about pitching one enemy on the other, for the most part this has not happened. With China quickly recognising the Taliban as a government, and then handing the Taliban the biggest materiel booty ever, making them one of the most equipped army in the region?

Another angle to make sense of this, would be to bait China into war ie: Thucydides trap, however in this case it would engage China according to the US schedule. This I think is hard to prove and justify. The theory goes that by involving China in the region it would destabilise it, by relocating resources that it would need for a war.

What ever the intent, this certainly has changed the geo-politics in the region, especially with the two big players which have been rather quiet.

Pakistan Support

One of the biggest supporters of the Taliban has been Pakistan, well not quite the Pakistani ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate) is really the force behind it.

Since the Taliban’s inception in the 1990’s the ISI has been training, funding and protect the organisation by providing camps for it in Pakistan. Remember that Osama Bin Laden died in Abbottabad in Pakistan, and that the ISI was the organisation that sheltered him there.

To say that the ISI benefits, it is uncertain because Pakistan has its own Taliban that the Army has been fighting. The Taliban on the Afghan and Pakistani side, are strongly anti-Shiite. Which is a problem for Pakistan as it has a large Shiite population.

Infact Pakistan has been one the players in the Taliban’s win in Afghanistan. Pakistan has helped the Taliban by organising peace talks, with the US and the Taliban.

What is the benefit to Pakistan here? Why would the ISI/Pakistan covertly fund the Taliban? My only guess is that it makes India’s life hard.

India’s backyard

For me personally there is no doubt that there is not going to be a Chinese century but an Indian century. In fact the one more looks at this the sooner one comes to a conclusion that the actual looser in all of this is India. India was cooperating strongly with the US for the reconstruction of Afghanistan, and was not too happy with the planned withdrawal.

Chine and India are not close allies by any means, and they have had border disputes, however India has had a long rivalry with Pakistan as well, so having the Pakistan friendly Taliban up to its north poses a strong geopolitical risk. Since the Taliban provides Pakistan a depth of defence should war arise with India.

India is in no position to alter the outcome now, with Pakistan and China saying they will coordinate policies it does mean that India is in weaker posture than before. China and Pakistan can take more aggressive postures near its borders leaving little room for India to manoeuvre.

Imagine border disputes, such triple alliances b/w Afghanistan, China and Pakistan mean that India is geopolitically trapped, and must rely on US support should conflicts arise. However this is insane, as India is a nuclear nation and so is Pakistan as well as China. Threats of a war going hot in the region are not uncommon, but by having China there not only does it mean that India must now make long pivoting decisions but also that those decisions will be made in the fog war.

It can try to rely on US support, I am not sure what India will think of that, or to even the playing field it might pivot to China. If such pivot would occur it would not be risk-free, it might involve giving up regions it considers its own, if it did then India might see it self be carved with out firing a shot.

If anything this withdrawal has cornered India even more so.

China

If India was the real looser in all of this, China is certainly the major winner. China has gained a lot in the short-term, from access to US military gear, now a potential pipeline from the Afghan gas/oil reserves meaning it can secure its energy source a bit more rather than depending on Saudi oil and avoiding the US navy. The effective containment of India and making its domestic security situation worse, China can far more easily move around this border. China’s future conflicts with the US means that India might think twice on going to war on the US behalf if it means risking a three front. This leaves China with a potential opening that it never had before, and can relocate forces away from that frontier if needed.

They have also had a huge confidence boost all caused by the bungling of the US administration. This confidence is on full display when they sailed near Alaska US waters. China has also been indirectly benefiting from all the US domestic chaos, although it has its own with EverGrande.

However while this all on the surface seems like its all well, with Pakistan it has CPEC, and there have been plans to include Afghanistan into this pact. This alliance might not hold if pressured, the Taliban is not interested in the world, and certainly it’s friendly posturing from China are more of expediency than mutual and fundamental respect. Pakistan and Afghanistan are Muslim majority countries with strong Islamists elements, which are probably more than keen to engage a Theological and Philosophical enemy such as an Atheistic state. So while the US might be heretics, China is literally the devil state that these two countries religions absolutely abhor.

This might be true in the long-run, as China slowly destabilises due to collapsing population, economic pressures, along with many other issues such as water. China’s wolf diplomacy is done out of necessity rather than from strength. However in the short term this provides China with the flexibility to operate should war with the US arise in the near-term.

All your cities lie in dust

With the Administrations seemingly bungling international relations, such as Biden falling asleep during a conference with the Israeli Prime Minister. The vaccine mandates that have people now shouting at sporting event ”Fuck Joe Biden”. To say that the withdrawal of US forces have helped domestically in the political arena, has not panned out well, the US population did want to exit Afghanistan, however they were not expecting this kabuki theatre.

Geopolitically the situation has now pincered India another US ally, as well emboldened China to be more aggressive in its posture to the US. For the moment the US is seen as weak, and given the complex dynamic situation I foresee a part 3 soon.